Brett Anderson from AW sees in his cristal Ball

[Mid Range]

......some of you might be interested

http://www.accuweather.com/news-blogs.asp?...p;blog=anderson

One View of the Upcoming Winter

Tuesday, September 18, 2007

The European seasonal model or the ECMWF Seasonal Forecasting system as it is officially called has just been updated with a new forecast for North America through the month of March. Here is my interpretation of what the model is predicting for the winter of 2007/2008 across Canada. Due to regulations I cannot post the model output, which is only available inhouse to the forecasters here at AccuWeather.com. Just like the model, I will break it down by month. Also, my own preliminary winter forecast should come out in about 7-10 days, which of course takes other models, in addition to this one, and current/past global conditions into consideration.

My interpretation of the ECMWF seasonal forecast

December: The model indicates a persistent Pacific ridge of high pressure south of the Aleutians which would argue more for a trough just off or along the west coast of Canada which would lead to colder and wetter than normal conditions for British Columbia. I also detect a fairly strong westerly jet cutting across the northern U.S., leaving much of the central and eastern U.S. rather mild. For the remainder of Canada, the model seems to show most of the cross-polar arctic air dumping into Siberia, leaving much of northern Canada near normal in terms of temperature. Temperatures from the eastern Prairies through Ontario look mild with above normal precipitation. Labrador and Newfoundland might start out the winter slightly colder than normal, but I cannot tell how the precipitation will go.

January: The model is indicating that the persistent ridge of high pressure south of the Aleutians will expand northward through western Alaska. If this is correct then it would argue for a strong push of arctic air down through eastern Alaska into the Yukon and northern prairies, leading to a cold January compared to normal. Snowfall would likely be above normal in Alberta. British Columbia would also be colder than normal, but not as wet. In the east, the model suggests more of a west to southwesterly flow from the southern U.S. plains to southern Ontario, southern Quebec and the Maritimes which argues for a mild January in these areas. Even though temperatures may not be all that cold compared to normal there may be a persistent storm track up through the Great Lakes and into Quebec, giving the northern Lakes region, central Ontario and most of Quebec above-normal snowfall. Due to the milder conditions, a good chunk of the maritimes may have less snow than normal according to what I am reading into the model.

February: The model indicates persistent low pressure around the polar regions and down into far northern Canada which would suggest colder than normal conditions in these areas, but generally mild conditions for much of the lower 48 of the U.S.. If the forecast from the model is on target then this type of pattern would favor additional arctic air masses coming down through the Northwest Territories and into the prairies then eastward toward central Quebec, but having a difficult time getting too far down into the lower 48. This fast flow, typical of La Nina would sweep the cold air in and out very quickly, leading to a lot of ups and downs in the temperature in just a matter of days. I still see some indication of a trough near the West Coast which would be good news for those western ski areas of Canada. The west to southwest jet seems to get a little more suppressed in the east, which may shift the overall storm track a little more south, leading to a better chance of some snow events over from southwestern Ontario to the Maritimes. The pattern shown by the model also supports above-normal snowfall for Newfoundland this month with a storm track just offshore.

Quickly looking at March, the model keeps much of the west colder than normal, but also indicates that much of the southern areas of eastern Canada may trend back toward normal in the temperature department as some of the cold air from the northwest is able to bleed in as the saying goes.

I will give you another update on the model's next forecast coming out on October 15th.

[rob]

(in)Accuweather just predicts what it feels it's viewers want to hear.

The winter forecasts I've seen so far are very disappointing.. Here is the temperature map from the CPC for dec-jan-feb:

[Mid Range]

They are confusing the people more than anything else Rob.......here's an example ;)

2007-2008 Weather Outlook for Canada

Click here for the 2007-2008 U.S. Outlook »

Weather is the most talked about subject on earth, which makes the annual Canadian Farmers’ Almanac weather predictions a hot topic. Fans of the Almanac say its famous long-range forecast is accurate between 80 and 85 percent of the time. So, what is this famous weather predicting publication calling for?

A two-faced or split personality winter season.

“Mother Nature is once again keeping all of us on our toes,” reveals Editor and Philom. Peter Geiger, “ we know she likes to throw curve balls at us from time to time and this winter it looks as though she’s going to reveal a possible split personality.”

The Canadian Farmers’ Almanac long-range forecasts are calling for a colder than normal winter with a greater than average complement of precipitation for the Ontario/Quebec border and points east into the Maritimes.

From central Ontario west through the Prairies and Rockies, on to the Pacific Coast – the overall winter will be milder than normal with near or below normal precipitation.

Skiers across Quebec will rejoice: snowier than normal conditions are expected. Snowy conditions will also be the case over Newfoundland. Overall, the winter should also average below normal temperature-wise across Quebec and the Maritimes.

Cold and snowy weather should also prevail over the Great Lakes region. In contrast, the Prairies, Rocky Mountains, and Pacific Coast should enjoy a relatively mild and somewhat drier than normal winter season overall. For some locations, the amount of wintertime precipitation – rain or snow – could average one-quarter to as much as one-half below seasonal normal.

And near and along the boundary zone between the mild and tranquil West and the cold and stormy East, we look for some large-scale weather vacillations: going from wintry to spring like and back to winter, almost like some sort of a meteorological pendulum undergoing a series of pretty wild swings.

[MichiganRev]

Hey Mid Range, I like that Farmers Almanac's forecast. Sign us up for that one!!!