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Bluegrass

Best weather forecast

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13 minutes ago, Bluegrass said:

Really looking to see what the weather is going to be around saint Raymond this Friday 

Starting off Friday at midnight the temps will slowly drop and hopefully freeze everything up.  Will probably start to snow late Friday and Saturday during the day.  No one knows what track the storm will take yet. EURO and American models differ on which direction.  

This is my take, which might be right but also could be wrong....

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The best one I know is the "eyeball weather station".  For Fridays weather, get up Friday morning open the door and take a peek outside.  It will be correct I promise you.  I have heard this station has a 100% accuracy record.  ;)  

I wish I had a good weather station to rely on as well, but they do seem to be slipping a lot lately.  Relying on computers instead of good old fashioned weather reading experience. 

I have tried wunderground, the weather channel phone app etc...   They seem to be all over the place and change dramatically as the day approaches.  Anything over a day out and I have no warm fuzzy feeling of their predictions. 

Sorry I really was no help at all....

Edited by Triggerhappy

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1 hour ago, Bluegrass said:

Really looking to see what the weather is going to be around saint Raymond this Friday 

We will be in Shawinigan either Friday night or Saturday morning.  Which direction are you heading from St. Raymond?

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Historically (over about the last 10+yrs) I have had very good luck with The Weather Network. They have Android + iPhone apps and reporting for most cities/towns in QC. I can't recall a time when they were very far off and the 14 day forecast gives a reasonable outlook when trip planning IMO.

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2 hours ago, Bluegrass said:

Really looking to see what the weather is going to be around saint Raymond this Friday 

I think you might want to mail it in for friday. From thurs mid day thru friday looks like rain, even up in the park (23). Not fun.

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/weather/quebec/saint-raymond?switchto=f

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/qc-113_metric_e.html?unit=imperial

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GFS says it's going to be wet Friday.

image.thumb.png.95aa3dba4df3da856fcfb4909c022703.png

Canadian Model says it's going to be wet as well:

image.thumb.png.a9bbb7cf40b766a27fa13d65a213032b.png

The Euro also shows precipitation:

image.png.3f8e42ecd43d682ab12ea714a5959934.png

And it shows that it's going to be above freezing:

image.png.3d912ce3df741f1609474ecb4e6ad596.png

These all seem to be in pretty good agreement for Friday but I would bet they change before Friday comes. That's a long ways out for a storm this complex.

Edited by JBlavl

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 I guess the big question is will the trails survive the upcoming warm up and rain before the snow they call for on Saturday arrives 

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1 hour ago, Pipeman said:

 I guess the big question is will the trails survive the upcoming warm up and rain before the snow they call for on Saturday arrives 

I guess depending on the amount of rain and the base already down. Around here ( Tremblant area ) one of the clubs were saying on FB that we could actually do with a short mild spell and a bit of rain to harden the base. We have had only power snow, about 2 + feet worth, so the trails tend to get beat up quickly after the groomer passes.

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The facebook page "Mark Sirois - Southern Québec Severe Weather Network" has been nailing it pretty good the past couple of years.  He's a part-time amateur meteorologist who's become a bit of a media star because of his success rates.  You can "friend" his page and judge for yourself, but I always have a gander when I light up the laptop in the morning. In our area, north of Buckingham and Thurso, the snow from a couple of days ago finally had some substance to it.  My buddy on our John Deere/Gilbert even had to keep the knives up, as the snow was a bit too sticky to flow through the drag (too bad he sprung a hydraulic leak.  I had to rush in by sled with a five gallon pail in order to get him back to the clubhouse).  Still, a couple of days of warmth, and maybe even a bit of rain, will definitely do some good when it  comes to solidifying the base.  Follow that up with Saturday's announced storm, and we'll be good to go for the rest of the winter.

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15 hours ago, Pipeman said:

 I guess the big question is will the trails survive the upcoming warm up and rain before the snow they call for on Saturday arrives 

Absolutely 

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6 hours ago, Gullyrider said:

The facebook page "Mark Sirois - Southern Québec Severe Weather Network" has been nailing it pretty good the past couple of years.  He's a part-time amateur meteorologist who's become a bit of a media star because of his success rates.  You can "friend" his page and judge for yourself, but I always have a gander when I light up the laptop in the morning. In our area, north of Buckingham and Thurso, the snow from a couple of days ago finally had some substance to it.  My buddy on our John Deere/Gilbert even had to keep the knives up, as the snow was a bit too sticky to flow through the drag (too bad he sprung a hydraulic leak.  I had to rush in by sled with a five gallon pail in order to get him back to the clubhouse).  Still, a couple of days of warmth, and maybe even a bit of rain, will definitely do some good when it  comes to solidifying the base.  Follow that up with Saturday's announced storm, and we'll be good to go for the rest of the winter.

This guy is going to have several new friends if he is right about this weekend’s storm being less ice and more snow as he is predicting on Facebook. 

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Hard to find true weather predictions amongst the different media, but when one source contradicts it's self ya got to wonder.  I have noticed in the past how inaccurate the weather network can be on the details for my area. For instance it can be blowing hard enough for trees to be bending and  the official wind speed is " winds light" or "calm". I am convinced their anemometer equipment is in the town hall basement or something. Today's weather is another puzzler. Look at the two pics below. Both are screen shots of the montcalm weather updatedat the same time taken at the same time on two different phones and both of us sitting on the same sofa ( hey got to keep all the variables to a minimum). Slightly different temps and different snow fall amounts for Fri.

 

IMG_0828.JPG

IMG_0827.PNG

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Currently raining in Quebec City. Girlfriend's car was a giant ice cube this morning. We have plenty of snow so I'm not too worried about the trails. We get rain every single winter and it doesn't make too much of a difference normally. 

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2 hours ago, Cnc said:

Hard to find true weather predictions amongst the different media, but when one source contradicts it's self ya got to wonder.  I have noticed in the past how inaccurate the weather network can be on the details for my area. For instance it can be blowing hard enough for trees to be bending and  the official wind speed is " winds light" or "calm". I am convinced their anemometer equipment is in the town hall basement or something. Today's weather is another puzzler. Look at the two pics below. Both are screen shots of the montcalm weather updatedat the same time taken at the same time on two different phones and both of us sitting on the same sofa ( hey got to keep all the variables to a minimum). Slightly different temps and different snow fall amounts for Fri.

 

IMG_0828.JPG

IMG_0827.PNG

The battery charges were different.The more the battery is charged the more accurate the forecast is.Everybody knows that :unknw:

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Come on Magic Eight Ball!!!!!

It says "Ask again later"..... Damn!

ShakeShakeShake......."Absolutely".... What does that mean....

SHAKESHAKESHAKE.......

 

GutZ

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3 hours ago, NSHM said:

The battery charges were different.The more the battery is charged the more accurate the forecast is.Everybody knows that :unknw:

Well I like your theory, the one with the most charge shows a higher snow count for Fri so I am going with that!👌

Window weather currently says, 40f gray, no rain at the moment and my lake is transforming from white to a sea of slush.

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